Study 4: Global and regional scenarios for the long term and for transition paths
  • Concept Note on SD21 Expert Group Meeting
  • Sustainable Development Scenarios for Rio+20 - A Component of the SD21 project


This study will produce scenarios for a sustainable economy in the long run (2050) and examine possible transition paths from the present to 2050.

The scenarios will be based on a global, regionally disaggregated model, informed by qualitative assessment. The long-term states of the world will be determined by sustainability conditions based on the latest knowledge in terms of global limits (for example, planetary boundaries as defined in the article by Rockstrom et al. in Nature in 2009), including in particular CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. They will to the extent possible be designed to be comparable with other prospective exercises done by the International Energy Agency, the IPCC, and other recent global assessments.

Results for 2050 will be presented in terms of macro-economic variables such as GDP, inter-regional financial flows, employment, human development, food production, energy generation, forest cover, and CO2 emissions.

Transition paths will be highlighted in terms of their implications for variables having direct relevance to policy such as energy production and consumption, financial transfers between regions, trade, income distribution within regions, land use and pollution outcomes at the regional level.
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