The Local SDGs Program is developing robust pathways towards future-proofing Australian communities and enabling people and nature to thrive. We are undertaking comprehensive case studies using mixed qualitative (participatory) and quantitative (modelling) methods to assess options for improving multiple socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability for two regional Australian communities. Widespread uptake of the framework can help Australia and the world achieve the UN’s Agenda 2030 and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from the bottom up.

A key step in the process of adaptive planning for the Forrest community involved a thorough understanding of local sustainability issues. Ongoing meetings with project stakeholders such as The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) have been essential to the adoption of a contextual analysis and local community engagements. A contextual analysis was undertaken in order to demonstrate knowledge of local issues and existing sustainable pathways when consulting local communities as part of our Forrest and Goulburn-Murray case studies. The methods involve a review of grey literature, scientific journals and previous community engagements. A list of relevant documents has been compiled in Endnote which includes climate adaptation reports and published studies on sustainability planning. These documents are also being coded for the most applicable SDGs using such tools as Nvivo.We use the SDGs as a global sustainability framework which indicates goals and target indicators in relation to various aspects of sustainability such as water and sanitation, food and agriculture, energy, job and economy, etc. We then review existing scientific articles, reports and websites to collect statements (as unit of analysis) and label the statements based on one of 17 SDGs. Next the top five SDGs of interest are identified by the number of coded statements across all documents. This is performed using Nvivo to import pdfs and systematically highlight statements. In excel we document the driving forces of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) as our framework to identify the challenges and opportunities of future driving forces in relation to SDGs.In addition to the review literature on local sustainability, we conducted an analytical review of a broad array of methodological constructs in robust decision making of coupled human-natural systems under uncertainties driven by environmental and social change. We initiated an international collaboration with the leading scholars of this field from Cornell University (USA), TU Delft (Netherlands), ANU, and UNSW, to undertake this review and collect views from a range of backgrounds in support of our project. We published the results of this methodological review as an article entitled “Structuring and evaluating decision support processes to enhance the robustness of complex human–natural systems” in Environmental Modelling & Software. We also submitted another manuscript entitled “Exploratory modelling: Taxonomy, benefits, and challenges of an emerging modelling approach under uncertainty” based on this methodological review to Earth’s Future.

To derive detailed local sustainability pathways for the Forrest/Otway Ranges study area, pathways include actions to increase capacity to adapt to climate change, manage bushfire risk, and develop mountain-bike tourism. This includes assessing the range and viability of options (e.g. fire readiness, tourism promotion, agricultural transition) and determining where and when they are required to ensure a just transition to a more sustainable future for the study area.To derive detailed local sustainability pathways for the Goulburn-Murray study area, pathways may include actions to increase resilience to water variability, and their ability to innovate with new technologies. This includes assessing the range and viability of options (e.g. irrigation reconfiguration, ecosystem services markets, renewable energy) and determining where and when they may be required to ensure a just transition to a more sustainable future.In developing local sustainability pathways for the Goulburn-Murray community, it is apparent that it has completely different characteristics in contrast to the Forrest community. Goulburn Murray, as the ‘inland water playground’ and the ‘food bowl of Australia’, has been long subjected to planning and strategic discussion through intensive engagement with decision-makers and practitioners. This long planning history has led to a high system thinking ability, already shaped a shared perspective about the future of the region among stakeholders, and has created a rich source of data and models. It, however, caused reluctance among stakeholders for new engagement activities. Therefore, the research team decided to slightly modify their initial plan of interaction with the community and rely more on the use of existing data and documents and to use the stakeholder capacity more carefully, only for consultancy and for informing the contextual analysis process. It was decided that key actions for Goulburn Murray include development of a governance process, policy directions, opportunities and impacts. It was also established that it was important to identify industry drivers such as dairy, irrigation and facilitating investment.To develop and communicate a general framework for designing pathways to sustainability we must synthesise a general framework from common threads in concepts/approaches from across the case studies that is applicable to local communities across Australia and worldwide. The outputs and outcomes from the individual case studies and the synthesis will be communicated widely, including via our website, social media, workshops, seminars, local and international conferences, journal articles and media outlets such as The Guardian and The Conversation.

The Local SDGs Program is a Deakin University initiative in collaboration with the Monash Sustainable Development Institute and funded through the Ian Potter Foundation. Deakin School of Life and Environmental Sciences researchers Professor Brett Bryan, Professor of Global Change, Environment and Society, and Dr Enayat A. Moallemi, Research Fellow in Human-Natural Systems Modelling, are leading the Local SDGs Program.Currently the project team, including three PhD researchers, is working with two local community case study areas in Victoria: Our Forrest/Otways (South-West Victoria) case study involves a region which has acknowledged its susceptibility to the environmental and socio-economic effects of climate change. This is a community in transition and is striving to attain a sustainable and resilient future in the midst of increasing fire threats and water shortages. It is imperative to protect the Forrest/Otways unique rainforest ecosystems, agriculture and tourism. The Goulburn Murray region (North-Central Victoria) in contrast, is a great distance from the coast and reliant on the Murray Darling Basin. The team and local community are developing sustainability pathways to increase resilience to water variability and to adopt new technologies. This case study focuses on the environmental and economic pressures facing the Irrigation, Dairy and Food Production industries.Ongoing meetings and workshops with communities, researchers, stakeholders and local experts including The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP)have been essential to the theory and application of adaptive planning for local sustainability pathways. These measures have therefore facilitated an informed, inclusive and transparent process from planning and engagement activities to framework development and eventual implementation.

Deakin University, The Ian Potter Foundation, Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Forrest Otways Victoria, North Central Catchment Management Authority (NCCMA)